An incumbent country view on eastern enlargement of the EU Part II: The Austrian case

In part I of this paper, we have presented a general treatment of the welfare effect of an eastern EU enlargement on incumbent countries. Part II now takes a closer look at the Austrian case. We first present a few descriptive statistics on the role that east-west trade, as well as the pertinent trade barriers, play for the Austrian economy. We then argue that a numerical simulation, based on a suitably specified general equilibrium model, is an appropriate way towards a full evaluation of the welfare and distributional consequences of enlargement. Focusing on the Austrian case, we therefore implement an enriched and parameterized version of the general model used in part I of the paper. The model features savings and investment, based on intertemporal optimization, as well as sectoral allocation of capital and labor (skilled/unskilled), based on product differentiation and imperfect competition. In addition, the model incorporates a detailed representation of the government budget, featuring distortive taces and subsidies, as well as transfers to domestic households, and financial transactions with the EU. The model allows us to take a quantitative view on both the costs and integrations gains of en eastern enlargement. Relying on a Hicksian welfare measure which incorporates both long-run effects and short-run adjustment, our numerical simulations indicate that, in the Austrian case, the integration gains outweigh the fiscal burden.

An incumbent country view on eastern enlargement of the EU Part I: A general treatment

An eastern Enlargement of the EU, from an incumbent country point of view, involves a fiscal burden from extending Union agricultural and cohesion plicies to new members, coupled with potential gains as well as adjustment problems deriving from an extended customs union and a larger single market. Enlargement is controversial, because the net effect is unclear, a priori, and will certainly vary across individual countries. Our two- part contribution tries to do shed light on this controversy. In this first part, we present a general treatment of the likely effects on different incumbent countries, while a subsequent companion paper will take a closer look at the specific case of Austria. The general view of part I, in turn, first focuses on various empirical measures highlighting crucial differences between incumbents, pertaining to the fiscal burden on the one hand, and integration gains on the other. We then argue that a proper evaluation must rely on an explicit welfare criterion, and we use a general model of economic integration in order to identify the principal channels through which aggregate welfare of an incumbent country is affected by an enlargement of the EU. We address traditional effects of trade creation and trade diversion, as well as growth effects arising from an abolition of trade barriers. In addition, we ask how enlargement affects foreign direct investment and labor migration, and what this implies in welfare terms for an invumbent western European country. Taken together, these effects generate a certain presumption of integration gains, which need to be set against the fiscal burden. However, a final judgement requires a case- by-base approach, based on empirical implementations of enriched and parameterized models for specific countries. The companion paper, therefore, uses a suitably specified, calibrated dynamic equilibrium model, in order to take a closer look at the Austrian case.

Eastern enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries

Eastern enlargement of the EU promises gains, but also imposes fiscal costs on incumbent countries. A sensitive issue concerns immigration, jobs and wages. We address these issues in a general equilibrium framework, both analytically and through numerical simulations. Analytical results identify capital accumulation as a prime transmission channel. Using a dynamic CGE model with search unemployment of high- and low-skilled labor, we simulate the effects of enlargement on Germany finding small e.ects from trade, but more pronounced labor market e.ects from migration. Based on German model elasticities, we approximate expected benefits and costs for other member countries as well.enlargement; economic integration; economic growth; capital accumulation; search unemployment; computable general equilibrium analysis

Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries

Eastern enlargement of the EU promises gains, but also imposes fiscal costs on incumbent countries. A sensitive issue concerns immigration, jobs and wages. We address these issues in a general equilibrium framework, both analytically and through numerical simulations. Analytical results identify capital accumulation as a prime transmission channel. Using a dynamic CGE model with search unemployment of high- and low-skilled labor, we simulate the effects of enlargement on Germany finding small effects from trade, but more pronounced labor market effects from migration. Based on German model elasticities, we approximate expected benefits and costs for other member countries as well.

Zur kurzfristigen Entwicklung der Beschäftigung im Baugewerbe

"Seit Beginn des Jahres 1973 ist die Beschäftigung im Baugewerbe - parallel zur stabilitätspolitischen Drosselung der realen Nachfrage nach Bauleistungen - saisonsbereinigt bereits stärker zurückgegangen als im Rezessionsjahr 1967. Zur Beurteilung dieser Beschäftigtenentwicklung werden in der vorliegenden Untersuchung die wichtigsten Veränderungen im Baugewerbe seit 1960 analysiert. Die Untersuchung ergab eine Reihe von Anhaltspunkten dafür, daß nach einem Beschäftigungsrückgang in der Größenordnung der gegenwärtigen Entwicklung wegen der Problematik der dauerhaften Abwanderung besonders auch der qualifizierten inländischen Arbeitskräfte aus dem Baugewerbe beträchtliche Engpässe bei einem Wiederaufschwung zu erwarten sind. Die dann zu erwartenden Schwierigkeiten werden noch größer sein als nach der Rezession 1966/67, weil anders als damals nicht mehr damit gerechnet werden kann, daß ersatzweise ausländische Arbeitnehmer in ausreichender Zahl (und mit der erforderlichen Qualifikation) zur Verfügung stehen. Für die Entwicklung von Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit im Baugewerbe im weiteren Verlauf dieses Jahres wurden angesichts der vorherrschenden Unsicherheit über die Entwicklung der privaten Nachfrage wie auch der zu erwartenden Konjunkturpolitik vier Varianten durchgerechnet, bei denen im Bauhauptgewerbe im zweiten Halbjahr 1974 alternativ ein Produktionsrückgang von 1,5 %, 5 %, 10 % und 15 % angenommen wurde."Baugewerbe - Entwicklung, Beschäftigungsentwicklung

Evaluation of the passage of Lactobacillus gasseri K7 and bifidobacteria from the stomach to intestines using a single reactor model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Probiotic bacteria are thought to play an important role in the digestive system and therefore have to survive the passage from stomach to intestines. Recently, a novel approach to simulate the passage from stomach to intestines in a single bioreactor was developed. The advantage of this automated one reactor system was the ability to test the influence of acid, bile salts and pancreatin.</p> <p><it>Lactobacillus gasseri </it>K7 is a strain isolated from infant faeces with properties making the strain interesting for cheese production. In this study, a single reactor system was used to evaluate the survival of <it>L. gasseri </it>K7 and selected bifidobacteria from our collection through the stomach-intestine passage.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Initial screening for acid resistance in acidified culture media showed a low tolerance of <it>Bifidobacterium dentium </it>for this condition indicating low survival in the passage. Similar results were achieved with <it>B. longum </it>subsp. <it>infantis </it>whereas <it>B. animalis </it>subsp. <it>lactis </it>had a high survival.</p> <p>These initial results were confirmed in the bioreactor model of the stomach-intestine passage. <it>B. animalis </it>subsp. <it>lactis </it>had the highest survival rate (10%) attaining approximately 5 × 10⁶cfu ml^-1compared to the other tested bifidobacteria strains which were reduced by a factor of up to 10⁶. <it>Lactobacillus gasseri </it>K7 was less resistant than <it>B. animalis </it>subsp. <it>lactis </it>but survived at cell concentrations approximately 1000 times higher than other bifidobacteria.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, we were able to show that <it>L. gasseri </it>K7 had a high survival rate in the stomach-intestine passage. By comparing the results with a previous study in piglets we could confirm the reliability of our simulation. Of the tested bifidobacteria strains, only <it>B. animalis </it>subsp. <it>lactis </it>showed acceptable survival for a successful passage in the simulation system.</p